Rangers 2011 Rotation - Who's in?

Well with Neftali Feliz flip-flopping on whether or not or whether or .... not he wants to be a starter this season, I feel like it's appropriate to go ahead and give you my predictions for the Rangers starting 5 this year.

Numero uno: CJ Wilson - CJ did exactly what Neffy is trying to do (or is he?) in the 2010 season by making the successful transition from closer to starter. In my opinion CJ is much more successful as a starter because as a closer he always had a way of getting himself into trouble before he finished the game up. That's the kind of thing you can do as a starter when you have several more innings to play with, but every now and then, it blew a game for the Rangers when CJ was closing. I expect CJ to dominate this year going into the season as the team's bona-fide "ace." CJ's conditioning program in the off season is likely second to none among AL pitchers, and I feel like it's going to pay off big time this year. I predict 18 wins for CJ and his hat in the ring for AL CY young winner.


Two: Colby Lewis - The "Cobra" had terrific stuff last season after coming across the pond (the Pacific pond that is) from the Japanese league. He went 12-13 in 2010, but you have to think it was for lack of timely run support as his ERA was 3.72 in just over 200 innings pitched. With those numbers, you can't count Colby out of the Cy Young running either if he gets in a groove here in the states. The stat that really jumps out at you: out of Colby's 13 losses in 2010, the Rangers scored less than 3 runs (that's 0, 1, or 2 runs) ELEVEN times! He could've easily won 6 more games, and I expect him to in 2011. That's 18 wins for Colby in 2011. I'm looking forward to it. (Oh, and let's not forget Colby also went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in the playoffs last season.)


Three: Brandon Webb - Webb won't actually be in the rotation until a couple weeks into the season, but once he gets there, I expect him to be everything he was before his 2009 surgery. I can't believe that a guy who's played baseball all his life, and dominated on the mound for several years in a row would just collapse upon coming back from a couple of offseasons. For me, signing Webb was little to no risk at all. I don't know if he'll win 22 games like he did for the D-Backs in 2008, but I expect somewhere around 16 (which would be his lowest win total in seasons he's pitched since 2006. Webb says his velocity is still there, and that combined with the mental aspect of pitching (that isn't something that goes away with surgery), I believe Webb will do just fine in his return season.


Four: Derek Holland - Holland ended the season in 2010 as the club's number 5 starter, so it was his job to lose. If anybody is going to take it from Holland, I would say that Michael Kirkman has the stuff, or possibly Tommy Hunter who's spring is going just dismal, (and for those of you who've seen Tommy when he's bad, he's REALLY bad.) Watching Holland's mechanics is a little like watching Sandy Koufax pitch. Holland isn't sort of rubbery like Koufax or anything like that, and I doubt he'll throw 5 no hitters in his career, but he has this smooth, almost effortless delivery that you like to see in a young pitcher. His problem over the past couple of seasons has been his youth, but everyone knows that youth always goes away with time. Holland is a starter, and he's going to grow into his shoes real soon.


Five: Neftali Feliz - I cannot wait to see Feliz take the hill in the opening frames this regular season. In my opinion, if Neftali wants to be a starter, he's going to be a starter. He's simply got the stuff to win whatever job he wants. When Neftali's on, he's nearly unhittable, and that's not going to change with which inning he's pitching. Neftali has a fastball that can hit triple digits, combined with a changeup that looks 20 miles per hour in comparison, a slider and a newly developed cutter. Not only that, but as a top prospect coming up through the minors, Neftali has been a starter all his life, so it's not like the change will be anything new for him. If anything, closing ballgames was new for Feliz. Neftali's effortless high 90's fastball gives him a chance to be a starter for many, many years to come. If you ask me, Feliz is the next Pedro Martinez.