Hamilton Sidelined 6-8 Weeks

I know what you're thinking. Good thing Hamilton wasn't playing center field Tuesday afternoon or this would've happened weeks (err...days) ago! At any rate, this proves that taking someone out of center field not only doesn't reduce the risk of injuries to an all-out player like Hamilton, it may actually make them occur sooner! (I know you think that's ridiculous, but the evidence is in my favor.)

Josh fractured his right shoulder sliding head first into home plate on a good call by third base coach Dave Anderson to send Hamilton. Home plate was vacated with Josh on third when a foul popped up near third base. Josh tried tagging on the play with no one covering home, but was beat in a foot race by Detroit catcher, Victor Martinez.

Hamilton's 6-8 week injury within the first two weeks of opening day is sure to get some frazzled and diving headfirst off the bandwagon before it's too late to jump on with another team. (See Anthony Castrovince's article hosted by MLB.com) But hear me out a minute before you go jumping ship. Pun intended.

The Ranger's replacement outfielder is David Murphy, a left handed hitter with the potential to launch 30-40 homeruns in a season given the proper playing time. As I've said before, Murphy is a starter on 26 or 27 other clubs, but due to the depth the Rangers have, Murphy is a backup here. What you're replacing Josh Hamilton's .333 average, 0 home runs, and 7 rbis with at this point in the season is a guy who has a greater than .280 career average over 6 seasons including a .313, 1 homer, 3 rbi start to 2011 in David Murphy. Murph is a fan favorite, and I expect him to drill the ball in replacement for Hamilton, just like he did last season filling in when Hamilton broke his rib in the outfield.

The other positive to take from this for Ranger's fans is the opportunity for Chris Davis to play in the big leagues after astronomical spring training numbers made solid competition for Mitch Moreland as the starting first baseman. Mitch won the job thanks to even better numbers in the spring, although Davis certainly had the numbers to make the team, and increased his trade value tremendously. I'm looking for Davis to get back to his 2008 form when he slugged 17 home runs in just 80 games, and hit a career best .285 in his rookie campaign.

The Rangers are going to be fine. There is no need to panic. Injuries happen to every team, every season, and one player does not make or break a playoff race.

Rangers @ Baltimore

Tonight the Rangers start a 3 game series against Buck Showalter's new team. Showalter was the manager of the Rangers before Ron Washington took over some 4 years ago. The Orioles are seemingly much improved under the short tenure of Showalter. That combined with some nice additions in the offseason, including the Rangers 2010 Silver Slugging DH, Vladimir Geurerro, and some solid young pitching should make for an exciting match up this weekend.

The Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound to take on young Oriole, Zach Britton. The Rangers are looking a lot like the best team in baseball through 6 games, and I don't see any reason why that won't carry into Baltimore this weekend. The Rangers have dominated in Camden Yards for the past couple of seasons including a record breaking 30-3 win in 2009.

You have to think the slugging we've seen in Arlington will continue in Baltimore this weekend as well, considering the Rangers big bats will be seeing a lot of young pitchers, and Vladdy won't be looking to disappoint his "shipmates" from last season.

The Rangers will put Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland on the mound this weekend to face respectively, Britton, Chris Tillman, and Jeremy Guthrie. Here's how I see it breaking down:

Game 1:

Lewis: 7 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Britton: 5 IP, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Rangers win 9-5


Game 2:

Harrison: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Tillman: 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Rangers first loss of the season: 6-3


Game 3:

Holland: 7 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Guthrie: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Rangers win 6-5

Thoughts on Last Night's 3-2 win.

1. Alexi Ogando
Ogando pitched 6 shutout innings last night in 90 pitches. Granted, this was against probably the worst offense in baseball, but Ogando showed that he has what it takes to be a starter. His offspeed pitches were a devastating change of his pace from his slowed down 95 mph past ball, and he used them in just the right count, thanks in part to Yorvit Torrealba. It may be a little presumptuous, but I don't see Ogando getting bumped from the rotation for Tommy Hunter or Brandon Webb once either of them are healthy. After Harrison and Holland's first starts, I can't see them getting bumped from the rotation either, but somehow or another, one or two of these guys are going to the bullpen, and 2 guys are going to AAA.

2. I severely underestimated Michael Pineda.
Pineda was the perfect counterpart for Alexi Ogando. Both are big right handers with electric fastballs and good breaking pitches. Pineda went 6 full innings, allowing only 3 earned runs in his debut as the Mariner's 5th starter, and he did it against what I would call the most potent offense in the league at this point.

3. It might be possible that Julio Borbon is a decent centerfielder.
With the bases loaded and two outs last night, Julio made a game-saving, diving catch to end the inning, essentially saving the game. Broadcaster, Tom Grieve, made the observation that Julio's catch was the equivalent of a 2 run home run, but I think it's even better. With a 2 run homerun the Rangers would have only increased their lead, but Julio's catch saved the lead the Rangers already had with his catch. Had that ball dropped, the Rangers would have needed more runs in the late innings that certainly were not guaranteed, (and in fact never showed up.)

Props to Julio, and Alexi Ogando. The Rangers send CJ Wilson to the mound this afternoon to face Cy Young winner, Felix Henandez. This should be a good game. We know Felix can go 8 or 9 innings, and I'd like to see CJ do the same. The thing I liked about Cliff Lee was his efficiency, which was why you get at least 7, sometimes 8 or 9, innings out of Cliff every time he starts. An ace needs to be relied upon to save innings from the bullpen, and take control of the game every time out. This pitching staff has a lot of solid pitchers who can go late into games, so CJ's going to have to earn that reputation. He has a chance to show how he stacks up against the league's best pitcher this afternoon.

Rangers - Mariners Preview

Tonight, the Seattle Mariners travel from Oakland to face the Texas Rangers in Arlington. Derek Holland is moved up to 4th in the rotation to face Seattle's Erik Bedard. Each pitcher is making their first start of the season. Bedard is coming off a 2010 season in which he didn't sat out the entire season due to a torn labrum. Holland makes his first start since the regular season, although he pitched in relief in the playoffs, putting together particularly good innings against the Yankees in the ALCS.

In game two on Tuesday, Alexi Ogando makes his first start after replacing Tommy Hunter who is on the disabled list. He'll go up against Michael Pineda, who has made the Mariners rotation as the 5th starter. Wednesday's game provides the best pitching matchup of the series when CJ Wilson goes head-to-head with reigning Cy Young winner, Felix Hernandez. Expect a pitcher's dual in this one to the late innings.

The Mariners have one of the least productive offenses in baseball, as compared to the Texas Rangers, although they are a team of big league hitters, and can certainly score some runs if not respected from the mound.

My predictions for the series:

Derek Holland: 6 IP, 2 ER, W
Erik Bedard: 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, L
Rangers Win 8-3

Alexi Ogando: 6 IP, 4 ER, No Decision
Michael Pineda: 5 IP, 5 ER, No Deicision
Rangers Win 7-6

CJ Wilson: 7 IP, 3 ER, L
Felix Hernandez: 8 IP, 1 ER, W
Rangers Lose 3-1

Home runs in the series: Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Mitch Moreland
Adam Kennedy, Justin Smoak

Miscellaneous: Ichiro gets on base 10 times in the series, and makes some crazy spiderman catch up a wall in right field.

Rangers - Red Sox Part Deux

Tonight Ranger's number 2 pitcher, Colby Lewis takes on former Los Angeles Angel, John Lackey, for the 2nd game in the first series of the 2011 season. Lewis, a veritable ace for many staffs, went 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA in 2010, and as I've documented before, an astronomical number of the 13 losses came when the Ranger's offense failed to provide at least 3 runs. It's also worth mentioning that Lewis, along with Cliff Lee, dominated in the playoffs last year, going 3-0 in 4 starts with a 1.71 ERA.

Lackey went 14-11 in 2010 with a 4.40 ERA. I'll give the advantage to the Rangers tonight, although I think Colby could give up a few runs with the humid conditions in Texas tonight.

My predictions:
Colby Lewis: 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 2 BB
John Lackey: 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 K, 2 BB

Homeruns: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Moreland, Dustin Pedroia, & Adrian Gonzales

Opening Day Victory (and an omen?)

Opening day was a huge success at Ranger's Ballpark Friday afternoon, as the Rangers decidedly beat the Red Sox before over 50,000 fans. The first Ranger to bat in 2011 was Ian Kinsler and he did it with a home run to left field off starter Jon Lester, and while that may be an omen, it's not the omen the title of this post is referring to.

Nelson Cruz also fisted a solo home run to left before Mike Napoli made Ron Washington feel very good about his decision to start Napoli instead of the regular first baseman, Moreland, on opening day. Napoli's 3 run home run put the Rangers up 5-4, but that lead was soon erased after CJ Wilson left the game in the 6th inning, having given up 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Red Sox tied it up when David Ortiz blasted a homerun off Wacoan reliever, Arthur Rhodes.

The score stayed tied at 5-5 until David Murphy, pinch hitting for error-prone centerfielder, Julio Borbon, hit a rope down the left field line that kicked up chalk and went for a 2 RBI double, putting the Rangers up 7-5. (The omen) Borbon is Ron Washington's guy in centerfield, but after he made 5 errors in center during spring training, people really started to notice the great injustice that is sitting David Murphy on the bench, behind this guy. Murphy can play outfield, he can run, he can throw, he can hit, and he's earned it. Borbon is sort of like the coach's son that gets to play quarterback even though he obviously sucks. Maybe Borbon's got some dirt on Nolan Ryan, and he's blackmailing him for the playing time...

Anyways, as expected, Julio ran into Nelson Cruz in right field on a routine fly ball that was obviously Nelly's the whole way, in the 1st inning of the 2011 opening day. See for yourself:

So, to recap, in very omen-like fashion, Kinsler shows that he still has pop in his bat from the leadoff spot that was conspicuously absent from the middle part of the lineup, where Kinsler hit in 2010, Julio Borbon proves the nay-sayers right when he muffs up the defense with a rookie mistake, and David Murphy shows once and for all the he's the deserved starter by getting a clutch, 2 RBI hit in Julio Borbon's spot in the lineup late in the game.

What more could you ask from Opening Day? With the Stars failing to make the playoffs for the 3rd straight season, opening day came just in the nick of time.

The Case Against Julio Borbon

The Rangers have one of the best outfields in baseball, both offensively and defensively, with or without Julio Borbon. Manager Ron Washington's plan for the 2011 season is for reigning MVP Josh Hamilton to play left field, Nelson Cruz to play right, and the relatively unproven newcomer Julio Borbon to take center field.

"Julio is my center-fielder," said Washington after a spring training game earlier this season.

And my complaint is exactly that. Julio is Wash's center-fielder, and that's it. Part of the reason for starting Borbon in center this season is to keep Josh Hamilton out of center field in the hopes he won't be running into anymore walls. My argument is this: Are there no walls in left field? Isn't Josh Hamilton just exactly as likely to get injured playing left field as he is playing center field? Granted, Hamilton's injuries in the past have occurred while he was playing center field but MAYBE that's because Hamilton has only played center field!

The second argument for Julio is that he's a defensive upgrade. But think about that: a defensive upgrade over Josh Hamilton, the prototypical five-tool player. Hamilton isn't quite as fast, but he's very nearly as fast as Borbon, and anyone would agree that Hamilton is more athletic. How many balls do you really think Julio Borbon is going to get to in center field that Hamilton couldn't? And besides that, the difference in throwing ability between Hamilton and Borbon is laughable at best, and keep in mind we're talking about the outfield position that has the longest throw to make. All this makes the case without even mentioning that Borbon has 5 errors already this spring in just 18 games, and he isn't even playing a full 9 innings per game!

The third reason, and the one that seems to be the greatest injustice is that in starting Borbon in the outfield, be it center field or a corner position, leaves David Murphy on the bench. Let's compare stats from the 2010 campaign and see how Borbon stacks up against the Ranger's fourth outfielder: Julio, in his second big league season hit .276 in 438 at bats, with 3 home runs and 42 RBIs. He's a 9 hole hitter on this club at best, while Murphy, a veteran of 5 seasons in the big leagues, hit .291 in a comparable 419 at bats with 12 homers and 65 RBIs. Murphy is a 7-hole hitter on this club, and he's not missing a lot of balls in the outfield that Borbon would otherwise get to, especially if Borbon continues his habit of dropping routine fly balls in the outfield. If you really think that Hamilton is going to be saved from injuring himself by playing his heart out in left field instead of center-field, you at least have to put David Murphy in center field. He's proven himself to be a big league player, he could start on probably 24 or 25 outfields in the big leagues, and he's earned the right to be there while Borbon has been handed the job on a silver platter by Ron Washington.

All this to say that one way or another, I believe Washington's hand will be forced in 2011 to put in the true starting outfielder this season when Borbon's bat proves to be dismal in comparison to Murphy's or his center field ability, (or lack thereof) becomes too obvious to overlook.

Chris Davis's Future - With the Rangers?

Let's take a look back at 2008. The Rangers were a searing hot offensive club with basically zero pitching. Kevin Millwood was the "ace" along with now Los Angeles Dodger, Vicente Padilla. Josh Hamilton was without question the comeback player of the year. You'll remember, 2008 was the year Hambone made a complete mockery of the home run derby at Old Yankee Stadium. The captain of the team was the captain of the infield, with Mike Young at short stop.

Ramon Vasquez and Hank Blalock were platooning at first and third with the occasional infield appearance by now Brew Crew utility man Frank Catalanotto. Enter Chris Davis, the big Texas kid out of Longview. Chris quickly became a fan favorite, Crush Davis, as he hit .285 with 17 home runs in just shy of 300 at bats.

Let's say your average everyday starter gets 600 at bats in a season, and a quick calculation tells you right away what Texas fans were so excited about. While Crush did start at 1st base on each of the next two opening days, he never quite lived up to the hype that he developed back in '08, and with Mitch Moreland as Ron Washington's main man in 2011, what will happen to Davis?

As of right now, I'd say the Rangers bench is full, especially with Wash planning on carrying three catchers in Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Treanor, and Mike Napoli. David Murphy is a sure thing off the bench year-in and year-out. Andres Blanco, who exploded last season filling in for Ian Kinsler will likely have a spot.

That leaves exactly zero room for Davis on the bench if the Rangers take a 7 man bullpen. I would think Chris Davis will start this season at Triple A for the first time since that 2008 season and maybe that's exactly what's needed: for Davis to duplicate that monster 2008 season. Surely at some point in the season poor performance or injuries will make room for a Triple A callup, and I'd personally love to see Crush get another chance. He has the talent to be a big league player, and his Hamilton-esque left handed power bat is certainly nothing to glance over, without even mentioning he's one of the best defensive first basemen in the league.

He's still young for the major leagues at 23, and it's great for the Rangers to have so much depth. Here's hoping that Davis finds that stroke again this season, and finds and maintains a spot on the Ranger's bench in 2011.